Whenever you make an estimation or measurement, your estimated or measured value can
differ from the truth by being inaccurate, imprecise, or both.
Accuracy refers to how close your measurement tends to come to the true value, without being
systematically biased in one direction or another. Such a bias is called a systematic error.
Precision refers to how close several replicate measurements come to each other — that is, how
reproducible they are.
In estimation, both random and systematic errors reduce precision and accuracy. You cannot control
random error, but you can control systematic error by improving your measurement methods. Consider
the four different situations that can arise if you take multiple measurements from the same population:
High precision and high accuracy is an ideal result. It means that each measurement you take is
close to the others, and all of these are close to the true population value.
High precision and low accuracy is not as ideal. This is where repeat measurements tend to be
close to one another, but are not that close to the true value. This situation can when you ask survey
respondents to self-report their weight. The average of the answers may be similar survey after
survey, but the answers may be inaccurately lower than truth. Although it is easy to predict what
the next measurement will be, the measurement is less useful if it does not help you know the true
value. This indicates you may want to improve your measurement methods.
Low precision and high accuracy is also not as ideal. This is where the measurements are not that
close to one another, but are not that far from the true population value. In this case, you may trust
your measurements, but find that it is hard to predict what the next one will be due to random error.
Low precision and low accuracy shows the least ideal result, which is a low level of both
precision and accuracy. This can only be improved through improving measurement methods.
Sampling distributions and standard errors
The standard error (abbreviated SE) is one way to indicate the level of precision about an
estimate or measurement from a sample. The SE tells you how much the estimate or measured
value may vary if you were to repeat the experiment or the measurement many times using a
different random sample from the same population each time, and recording the value you
obtained each time. This collection of numbers would have a spread of values, forming what is
called the sampling distribution for that variable. The SE is a measure of the width of the
sampling distribution, as described in Chapter 9.
Fortunately, you don’t have to repeat the entire experiment a large number of times to calculate the SE.
You can usually estimate the SE using data from a single experiment by using confidence intervals.
Confidence intervals
An important application of statistical estimation theory in biostatistics is calculating confidence